Reeves gets a £30bn reprieve ahead of the Spring Statement

Rachel Reeves has secured a record-breaking loan reprieve in new data that emerged before the Chancellor delivered his Spring Statement in March.

The Treasury ran a surplus of £30.4 billion in January, according to new figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), after a surge in tax receipts.

The figure is £15.9 million higher than the January 2025 figure and £6.3 billion above the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast for November 2025.

Capital gains tax receipts hit a record high in January, with total receipts rising £7 billion to £17 billion, in a sign fears over future tax rises may have triggered sharp asset sales.

“January – traditionally a strong month for self-assessed tax receipts – saw the highest surplus since monthly records began,” said Grant Fitzner, chief economist at the ONS.

Loans for the financial year to January 2026 stood at £112.1 million, around 11.5 per cent lower than in the same 10-month period last year. Although this is still the fifth highest loan record in April to January.

Meanwhile, total public sector spending increased by £900 million from January 2025 to £112.7 billion. This was largely due to a decrease in interest rates on central government debt.

In January, figures for the end of 2025 showed total borrowing costs for the financial year had reached £140.4 billion, topping the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast of £138.3 billion.

This comes despite borrowing figures for December coming in below City analyst estimates.

Reeves’ fiscal rules have faced intense scrutiny

Reeves has sought to trumpet his self-imposed fiscal rules – which require tax revenues to pay for day-to-day spending rather than borrowing – as a means of stability for the British economy.

But criticism of the rules is growing, and economists at the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) say the structure will pave the way for “fake” policy changes, thereby increasing volatility in the economy.

“This framework achieves neither sustainable public finances nor financial market credibility,” wrote Ben Zaranko, economist at IFS.

The IFS says “the current balance is producing dysfunction so the time has come” to try something new.

They called for radical reform of the post-2029 Parliament, with the Chancellor delivering a landmark speech outlining broad fiscal objectives in narrative rather than fixed form.

Reeves has consistently said that his fiscal rules are “non-negotiable” and criticized his predecessor for acting “recklessly” with public finances.

The Chancellor will deliver his Spring Statement on March 3 2026, where reports suggest the Treasury hopes to downplay the event in a bid not to disrupt bond markets and send borrowing costs higher.