The secret to the rise of the Reformation? They don’t leave the office

The Reformation took advantage of the summer holiday hiatus to advance their cause, and it made a huge difference, writes Michael Martins in today’s Notebook

My political winner this year? Reform spin doctors who don’t go on summer vacation

December is a time of reflection so it got me thinking about who I thought was most impressive politically this year.

Although they led the election for most of the year and won many political debates, I only started taking Reform seriously in August, several months later than most other parties.

My reasons for making the switch are very clear. Starting in mid-July, a number of SpAds and Labor Party researchers started changing their Whatsapp status to “Out of Office”, while their Reform colleagues did not. While the government was on holiday, Reform used the vacancy to spark a new wave of summer unrest around asylum seeking.

The tactical brilliance of the Reformation had produced great results. The government has spent the months since trying to win back the debate on migration, pushing for more tough measures and strategic consultations. These efforts have largely failed, and have also weakened their standing in the eyes of the wider electorate, their own MPs, and party members. Labor is now six points lower in today’s opinion polls than it was at the start of the summer holiday.

The aftershocks of those months were also felt outside the polling stations. Turning away from Reform voters, Deputy PM, David Lammy MP, alluded to rejoining the EU to win back disaffected businesses and Democratic Lib and Conservative voters.

Although more than half of MPs had no parliamentary experience (read: PTSD) at the time, for anyone in Westminster who has experienced the Groundhog Day of Brexit, they certainly know how in this prospect is not attractive. The fundamentals have not changed. The EU’s approach has become increasingly tough, even in the midst of the war in Ukraine and a second Trump presidency, so asking nicely will not work. In fact, Lammy’s approach may actually make Reform’s election bid look cleaner and the government more chaotic and/or compliant.

Therefore, even though I am an immigrant, Reform politicians have shown that they are more opportunistic and will do whatever it takes to win, even when government staffers are on shore doing the research and research they deserve – they are my most prominent political winners in 2025.

Ministers may not advertise SpAds

Health Minister Wes Streeting recently advertised a job as one of his special advisers on Linkedin. While I can appreciate the arguments for transparency in one of the more powerful roles in government, I support the non-registration route, which prioritizes networks, reputation, ingenuity and ability, which are the things that matter at Westminster. While Wes’ approach sounds good in theory, in practice, I think it would be performative and resource-intensive CV screening for a pre-filled role given to someone he entrusts with his political destiny.

A Christmas miracle: The Conservative Party starts thinking again about small businesses

At a recent roundtable that Overton held with a leading member of the Treasury Select Committee, it became clear that as the Conservative Party rebuilds from its historic defeat, some of its policy ideas will be aimed directly at small and micro businesses. One of the most interesting is a tax incentive (or even *wait for applause* tax holiday) for hiring and scaling up, which I think will be of concern to many business owners who have been forced to halt growth and investment amidst tax increases and the Employment Rights Bill.

Entrepreneurs and civil servants now have the same marginal tax rate

For a government that openly supports growth, I am impressed by the number of decisions it makes that appear to limit growth. For example, the Chancellor increases the dividend tax rate on entrepreneurs in the APBN. This means that, after taking corporation tax into account, entrepreneurs making profits above £50,000, many of whom work on a 9-9-6 basis, now face the same marginal tax rate as civil servants who leave work at 5pm. This tax increase has created an effective (and unreasonable) £50,000 payroll tax cap for employers and should be scrapped.

What I’m watching: Pluribus, a humorous critique of our relationship with AI

I recently binge-watched Pluribus and, by episode two, I had a strange feeling of déjà vu. plural‘ The protagonist, Carol, is hell-bent on reversing an alien viral infection that is turning all of humanity, except for 13 naturally immune people, into a vast hive of “Other” minds. The others coexist peacefully with the 13, fulfilling their every wish and answering their every question (sound familiar?), even as they search for a way to absorb it.

The show is a satirical and refreshing social critique amidst the AI ​​culture wars, but for the sake of balance, I asked ChatGPT for their opinion: “Pluribus is an analogy for humanity’s dependence on AI — but its real target is a civilization that trades agency for convenience and which won’t realize its losses until resistance itself feels pathological,” is how I felt when my AI note taker wasn’t present at the meeting.

Michael Martins is the founder of Overton Advisors